Well it's possibly my favorite event of the entire year, the Oscars. Just the sheer aura of the event gives me goose bumps. I can't help but speculate who will be nominated months before the nominations are announced or the favorites have even been released. Now that the Academy have announced the nominations I start to look forward to the event itself. However in hindsight of the nominations, it appears the academy are, "playing it safe", leaving out highly dark, but fantastic work by hollywood’s greats. I will go into that in far more detail in the individual categories, anyways here are my predictions of how this years awards will play out.
Key:
Favorite
Contenders
Best Picture:
The Artist
Hugo
The Descendants
Midnight in Paris
War Horse
The Help
Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close
Money Ball
The Tree of Life
As far as the nominations go this is the first example of the Academy opting for the safe route. The lack of Girl with the Dragon Tattoo and even Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, Suggests that they have been too scared to go with those slightly darker choices. As for the nominees they have picked, I have no real complaints. Extremly Loud and Incredibly Close I felt never really hit that top gear and personally I think either of the two they ignored would have been more fitting as a nominee. The rest were largely expected to be nominated, though it is a surprise that they have gone with so many films, most expected there to be 7 nominees with 8 at a push. As for the winner is concerned I think it’s fairly easy to call, as it looks fairly certain to go to the Artist, though I wouldn’t be surprised if either Hugo or the Descendants stole it at the last second.
Best Actor in a Leading Role:
Demián Bichir - A Better Life
George Clooney - The Descendants
Jean Dujardin - The Artist
Gary Oldman - Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
Brad Pitt - Money Ball
This is the category I really have a problem with. For one actor alone, Michael Fassbender. For him not to receive a nomination for his performance in Shame is a travesty. I was worried before the nominees were announced, that Fassbender’s performance would be to risqué for him to win, but I would never have predicted it would have cost him a nomination all together! Another Actor they’ve decided to snub is Leonardo Di Caprio, for J. Edgar. Disappointing as Di Caprio has really upped his game in the last few years. (So much so that I believe he should have been nominated for Inception, but that’s another story) The actors that have replaced those two are Demián Bichir and Gary Oldman. I am more then happy to see Oldman finally receive his first Oscar nomination, as he was awesome in Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy. As for Bichir I must confess I am yet to see A Better Life, needless to say it is on my to do list! The winner will likely be George Clooney for the Descendants but I think there is a strong threat from Jean Gujardin and I think Oldman is picking up momentum and I’d love to see him win on his first attempt.
Best Actress in a Leading Role:
Glenn Close - Albert Nobbs
Viola Davis - The Help
Rooney Mara - The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Meryl Streep - The Iron Lady
Michelle Williams - My Week with Marilyn
This, I believe, will be a dead certainty. The obvious choice is Meryl Streep, and the hype surrounding her performance as Margret Thatcher is only helping her cause. However all 5 of the nominees deserve the awards, Glenn Close, Viola Davis, Michelle Williams, were all superb. But my favorite and personal pick is Rooney Mara. She was incredible as Lisbeth Slandaer in Fincher’s Girl with the Dragon Tattoo. However on the point of the Academy “playing it safe” I think it will go to Streep. One issue I have with the nominations? No Tilda Swinton for We Need to talk About Kevin, another dark performance turned down by the Academy, though both Williams and Close deserved their nominations.
Best Actor in a Supporting Role:
Kenneth Branagh - My Week with Marilyn
Jonah Hill - Moneyball
Nick Nolte - Warrior
Christopher Plummer - Beginners
Max Von Sydow - Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close
Apart from the Leading Actress category this is the most competitive. Jonah Hill won’t even get a look in and he was brilliant in Moneyball! Despite this I think it will probably go to Christopher Plummer, and quite rightly too! I expect there to be some pretty firm competition from the Likes of Von Sydow and Branagh however, and I’d love to see Branagh steal it!
Best Actress in a Supporting Role:
Bérénice Bejo - The Artist
Jessica Bejo - The Help
Melissa McCarthy - Bridesmaids
Janey McTeer - Albert Nobbs
Octavia Spencer - The Help
Should be a deserved Oscar for The Help and probably the only one they are likely to see. I will say that it is nice to see another comedy performance being recognized. With McCarthy being nominated for Bridesmaids, we haven’t seen a proper comedy acting performance nominated for the last four years or so, not since Robert Downey Jr. in Tropic Thunder. Can she win it? Probably not, likely to go to another Help actress, Jessica Bejo or Janey McTeer.
Best Animation:
Kung Fu Panda 2 - DreamWorks
Puss in Boots - DreamWorks
Rango - Nickelodeon Films
A Cat in Paris - FilmDistribution Paris
Chico and Rita - Walt Disney
The biggest snub out of all the nominees. Most were expected nominations, but the much-deserved nomination of A Cat in Paris incredibly pushed the favorite to win out of the nominations all together. Spielberg must have done something to piss off someone in the Academy because for The Adventures of Tintin not to get nominated, after being the most high tech animation EVER is a massive shock. As far as who will win its between Puss and Boots and Rango, with the latter being my choice.
Best Director:
Woody Allen - A Midnight in Paris
Alexander Payne - The Descendants
Martin Scorsese - Hugo
Terrence Malick - The Tree of Life
Michel Hazanavicius - The Artist
Yet again no nomination for Spielberg. Another favorite for a nomination, for his work on Warhorse, and yet another snub. Another possible surprise or perhaps the final example of the Oscars shying away for darkness, is the lack of a nomination for David Fincher for Girl with a Dragon Tattoo. As far as the winner is concerned, it will probably go to Hazanavicius.
Cinematography:
The Artist
The Tree of Life
Hugo
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
War Horse
If the Artist does well, I predict it will do very well. So I can see it doing very well in a lot of the “lower” awards. Artist to win is my guess, though I’d love Girl with a Dragon Tattoo to pinch it.
Costume Design:
Anonymous
The Artist
Hugo
Jane Eyre
W.E.
As I said, Artist to win, Hugo as a possible stealer.
Art Direction:
The Artist
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
Hugo
Midnight in Paris
War Horse
This should be Hugo’s, but see the Artist putting up a fight for every award, and Warhorse was a stunning film.
Film Editing:
The Artist
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
Money Ball
The Descendants
Heart says, Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, mind says Hugo. Hugo to win it.
Makeup:
Albert Nobbs
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
The Iron Lady
Iron Lady pretty certain, HP possible spoiler.
Music (Original Score):
The Adventures of Tintin
The Artist
Hugo
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
War Horse
Between Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy and The Artist. I'm saying The Artist.
Music (Original Song):
"Man or Muppet" - The Muppets
"Real in Rio" - Rio
Tough choice this…
Sound Editing:
Drive
Hugo
War Horse
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Transformers: Dark Side of the Moon
The only award Girl with the Dragon Tattoo is the favorite for, War Horse and Drive could walk away with it though.
Sound Mixing:
Transformers: Dark Side of the Moon
Hugo
War Horse
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Moneyball
Transformers not really being considered in the build up, Hugo is the likely winner, with War Horse and the Girl with Dragon Tattoo being recognized for their superb sound.
Visual Effects:
Transformers: Dark Side of the Moon
Hugo
Real Steel
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Should go to Rise of the Planet of the Apes after superb work with their motion capture. The only award HP really stands a chance at taking.
Writing (Adapted Screenplay):
Hugo
The Descendants
The Ides of March
Moneyball
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
Can see this one going to the Descendants, was hoping Harry Potter would be recognized, after their superb work over the last decade or so.
Writing (Original Screenplay):
The Artist
Bridesmaids
Margin Call
Midnight in Paris
A Seperation
Need I say more? The Artist is nominated.
As showing the nominations would have little worth to most people as these films/documentaries rarely receive a huge reception, I will only write my predictions of who will win.
Documentary Feature:
Winner: Pina
Outside Chance: Hell and Back Again
Foreign Language Film:
Winner: A Separation (Iran)
Outside Chance: Footnote (Israel)
Documentary Short:
Winner: Saving Face
Outside Chance: Incident in New Baghdad
Short Film (Animated):
Winner: La Luna
Outside Chance: The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore
Short Film (Live Action):
Winner: Time Freak
Outside Chance: Tuba Atlantic
